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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Arizona Merger Creates Largest Sotheby’s International Realty® Network Member
PARSIPPANY, N.J. (June 4, 2008) – Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC today announced that Equitable Sotheby’s International Realty in Scottsdale, Ariz., has merged with Arizona’s legendary real estate icon, Russ Lyon Realty Company in Scottsdale, Ariz., creating the brand’s largest network member.
The newly combined firm will do business as Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty, with nearly 1,000 agents serving the Scottsdale and Phoenix metropolitan areas as well as Flagstaff and Sedona.
John N. Vatistas, former owner of Equitable Sotheby’s International Realty, now is co-owner and co-chairman of Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty. Jim Lyon, former owner of Russ Lyon Realty’s Northern Arizona operations, now is co-owner and co-chairman of the new company.
Dominic Scappaticci, chief executive officer and designated broker, Equitable Sotheby’s International Realty, is serving in the same role for the new company. Todd Gillenwater, Russ Lyon’s former designated broker for its Northern Arizona operations, now is president of Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty.
“Luxury real estate in Arizona is a very attractive market for Sotheby’s International Realty clients globally,” says Michael R. Good, president and chief executive officer, Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. “We are excited about the merging of these two outstanding firms that embody our brand’s focus on exceptional client service.”
Vatistas founded Equitable Real Estate in 2005, and in October 2007 it became the first Arizona real estate firm to affiliate with the Sotheby’s International Realty brand, doing business as Equitable Sotheby’s International Realty.
“This collaboration brings to the table Russ Lyon’s six decades as a major force in Arizona’s luxury home real estate market and the Sotheby’s International Realty brand’s years of serving affluent clients around the world,” said Vatistas. “We consider our newly combined company to be the best option for luxury real estate in the state of Arizona.”
Russ Lyon Realty Company was founded in 1947 by Russ Lyon, Sr. It evolved into a statewide professional real estate company operating 10 offices in the Phoenix and Scottsdale Valley and four independently-owned and operated franchises in Prescott, Sedona and Flagstaff.
“We merged with Equitable Sotheby’s International Realty to create a powerhouse company by incorporating their world-renowned Sotheby’s International Realty affiliation, their technology and their entrepreneurial spirit, which together with our solid tradition of excellence, creates a synergy that is unmatched in service to our associates and clients,” said Jim Lyon.
The Sotheby’s International Realty network currently has more than 9,500 sales associates located in more than 485 offices in the United States and 32 other countries and territories. Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty listings will be marketed on the sothebysrealty.com global Web site. In addition to more referral opportunities and widened exposure generated from these sources, the firm will benefit from an association with the Sotheby’s auction house and worldwide Sotheby’s International Realty marketing programs.
Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty’s main office is located at 8700 N. Gainey Center Dr., Suite #150, Scottsdale, Ariz., 85258 and can be reached at (480) 778-8000.
About Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC Founded in 1976 to provide independent brokerages with a powerful marketing and referral program for luxury listings, the Sotheby’s International Realty network was designed to connect the finest independent real estate companies to the most prestigious clientele in the world. In February 2004, Realogy Corporation, a global provider of real estate and relocation services, entered into a long-term strategic alliance with Sotheby’s, the operator of the auction house. The agreement provided for the licensing of the Sotheby’s International Realty name and the development of a full franchise system by Realogy’s subsidiary, Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Affiliations in the system are granted only to brokerages and individuals meeting strict qualifications. Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC supports its affiliates with a host of operational, marketing, recruiting, educational and business development resources. Franchise affiliates also benefit from an association with the venerable Sotheby’s auction house, established in 1744. For more information, visit www.sothebysrealty.com.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jean P Ransdell ABR® EQUITABLE SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL
LOCAL REALTOR® ACHIEVES NATIONAL RECOGNITION
Scottsdale, AZ - Jean P Ransdell with EQUITABLE SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL has heen awarded the Accredited Buyer Representation (ABR®) designation by the Real Estate BUYER'S AGENT Council, Inc. (REBAC) of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (NAR).
Jean P Ransdel] joins more than 32,000 real estate professionals in North America who bave earned the ABR® designation. All were required to Successfully complete a comprehensive course in buyer representation and an elective course focusing on a buyer representation specialty, both in addition to submitting documentation verifYing professional experience.
REBAC, founded in 1988, is the world's largest association of rea] estate professionals focusing specifically on representing the real estate buyer. There are more than 43,000 active members of the organization world-wide. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION Of REALTORS®, "The Voice for Real Estate." is the world's largest professional association, representing over 1000,000 members involved in all aspects of the real estate industry.
You may contact the Real Estate BUYER'S AGENT Council by telephone. (800) 648-6224. by e-maiL (rcbac@realtors,org), or by visiting the REBAC website. (www.REBAC.net).
Friday, May 23, 2008 Russ Lyon Realty Co., Equitable Sotheby's International Realty merge Phoenix Business Journal - by Jan Buchholz Phoenix Business Journal Russ Lyon Realty Co., a pioneer in the Valley's luxury home market, has merged with Scottsdale-based Equitable Sotheby's International Realty to become one of the largest Sotheby's real estate franchises in the world. The deal was finalized May 19 after nearly six months of negotiations. Financial specifics were not released, but the transaction was complicated.
Three companies were combined: Russ Lyon Realty Co., which was founded by Russell Lyon in 1947 and owned by his son, Dennis Lyon; Russ Lyon Realty Co. of Flagstaff, Prescott and Sedona, a separate company started by Dennis Lyon's son James; and Equitable Sotheby's, created in 2005 by local mortgage entrepreneur John Vatistas. The merged company is called Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty. "It was a very tough negotiation. There were very different dynamics between the father and son, and you had to respect those differences," Vatistas said.
James Lyon and Vatistas are co-chairmen of the new firm. Dennis Lyon is retiring. "My father is 73, and he asked if I could take over the firm and carry on the Lyon tradition," James Lyon said -- but he was thinking bigger picture and longer term. In January, he contacted Vatistas, a former business partner, about the possibility of creating a new firm that would parlay the local historical significance of the Russ Lyon brand with the international profile of Sotheby's. "I've always been intrigued by the Sotheby's name," Lyon said. The Sotheby's brokerage was founded in 1976 as an associated firm of the 260-year-old auction house. Mike Good is president and CEO of Sotheby's International Realty Affiliates LLC, based in Parsippany, N.J. "The size of it doesn't excite me as much as the similar cultures and values of these two organizations," Good said. "Two quality companies have come together ... and (have) the opportunity to become one of the finest in our system." Vatistas thought he'd scored the ultimate coup in 2007 when he cut a deal to become the first Sotheby's affiliate in Arizona. Equitable Real Estate Co. became Equitable Sotheby's International Realty last fall. "Sotheby's has very stringent criteria before they will approve any organization," Vatistas said. Today, he's not too upset about giving up the Equitable name. He said he had been thinking about reaching out to James Lyon about the same time he called. In fact, both said it took them "four minutes" to agree to the merger. The actual details of creating the new company took far longer. It was worth it, Vatistas said. "Russ Lyon is the crown jewel of boutique luxury real estate companies in the Valley," he said. "For an up-and-coming entrepreneurial company like Equitable, it's a perfect marriage, and the synergies are simply staggering."
The combined company will have more than 1,000 agents at 10 Arizona offices. Corporate headquarters will be in the Gainey Ranch area of Scottsdale. Vatistas believes the new firm will make it difficult for other brokerages to compete in the luxury home market. Many homes for sale won't be listed publicly because they'll be transacted among agents within the Russ Lyon Sotheby's network.
"I wouldn't want to have to compete against us," Vatistas said.
Get Connected Equitable Sotheby's International Realty: www.efineliving.com Russ Lyon Realty Co.: www.russlyon.com
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Leading Arizona Firm Joins Sotheby’s International Realty Network
Parsippany, N.J. 10-25-2007 - Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC today announced that The Equitable Real Estate Company in Scottsdale, Ariz., has joined its luxury real estate network.
The firm, which brings four offices across Arizona to the network, is owned by John N. Vatistas and now will do business as Equitable Sotheby’s International Realty. Dominic Scappaticci will serve as the firm’s chief executive officer and designated broker. “John and Dominic have built a firm with a solid reputation for quality and commitment to its valued clients,” said Michael R. Good, president and chief executive officer, Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. “The firm has established a successful, team-oriented culture among its experienced sales associates that allows them to better serve consumers in their market.”
Vatistas believes his firm shares the same values and high standards as the Sotheby’s International Realty brand. “Joining the Sotheby’s International Realty brand is consistent with our promise of sophistication, professionalism, results and a global reach for our clients,” said Vatistas. “We now offer superior service, technology, marketing muscle, and brand power for homebuyers and sellers in our markets. Consumers are demanding a better real estate experience and we’re going to be the company that delivers it.”
The Sotheby’s International Realty network has more than 8,000 sales associates located in more than 450 offices in the U.S. and 27 other countries and territories. Equitable Sotheby’s International Realty listings will be marketed on the sothebysrealty.com global Web site. In addition to the referral opportunities and great exposure generated from these sources, the firm will benefit from an association with the Sotheby’s auction house and worldwide Sotheby’s International Realty marketing programs.
Equitable Sotheby’s International Realty’s Jean Ransdell and 278 other sales associates provide their service and expertise to clients in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Phoenix, Carefree, Cave Creek, Fountain Hills, Sedona and Flagstaff. The main office is located at 21040 N. Pima Road, Scottsdale, Ariz., and the phone number is (480) 287-5200.
About Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC Founded in 1976 to provide independent brokerages with a powerful marketing and referral program for luxury listings, the Sotheby’s International Realty network was designed to connect the finest independent real estate companies to the most prestigious clientele in the world. In February 2004, Realogy Corporation, a global provider of real estate and relocation services, entered into a long-term strategic alliance with Sotheby’s Holdings, Inc. The agreement provided for the licensing of the Sotheby’s International Realty name and the development of a full franchise system by Realogy’s subsidiary, Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Affiliations in the system are granted only to brokerages and individuals meeting strict qualifications. Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC supports its affiliates with a host of operational, marketing, recruiting, educational and business development resources. Franchise affiliates also benefit from an association with the venerable Sotheby’s auction house, established in 1744. For more information, visit www.sothebysrealty.com.
Number of pending home sales rises 5% in June Associated Press Aug. 1, 2007 08:45 AM
WASHINGTON - Pending sales of existing homes rose by 5 percent in June compared with the previous month, a surprisingly positive sign for the beleaguered housing market, a real-estate trade group said Wednesday.
The National Association of Realtors said it was the largest monthly gain in more than three years and that increases in pending sales were reported across the country. However, Lawrence Yun, the trade group's senior economist, wasn't overly optimistic, and the pending sales index remained 8.6 percent below year-ago levels.
"It is too early to say if home sales have already passed bottom," Yun said in a statement. Since there typically is a period of one to two months between when buyers and sellers sign a sales contract and when the property changes hands, pending home sales in June are likely to be completed between July and August.
The trade group's index of pending home sales rose to 102.4 in June, up from a downwardly revised figure of 97.5 in May. Wall Street had been anticipating a slight decrease, as analysts surveyed by Briefing.com forecast a decline of 0.6 percent from the original May number of 97.7.
The index, calculated since 2001, is based on a national sample that represents about 20 percent of existing home sales.
It is considered an indicator of how sales will perform in the coming weeks because it measures home purchases in which a sales contract has been signed, but the deal has not yet been closed.
The report is comes amid a flood of negative news about the housing market and the troubled mortgage industry. A housing index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's said U.S. home prices fell for a fifth consecutive month in May, the index's steepest drop in about 16 years. The S&P/Case-Shiller index that covers 10 U.S. cities fell 3.4 percent in May from a year earlier in the steepest decline since the summer of 1991.
Demand for new and existing homes has been hurt as lenders tightened borrowing criteria after defaults started to rise in the market for mortgages offered to borrowers with spotty credit histories. Numerous mortgage companies are facing troubles.
New York-based American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. lost 90 percent of its market value on Tuesday after saying it may have to sell off its assets, and analysts were skeptical about its ability to survive.
Last month, the realtors' trade group projected that home prices and sales would bounce back next year after a dreary 2007.
Fewer AZ homeowners falling behind Catherine Reagor The Arizona Republic Jun. 15, 2007 12:00 AM
The number of Arizona homeowners behind on their mortgage payments fell during the first quarter, a sign the housing market may be on the rebound.
Mortgage delinquencies across the state dropped to 3 percent at the end of March from 3.51 percent at the end of 2006, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.
Nationally, the delinquency rate fell only to 4.84 percent, from 4.95 percent. advertisement
Delinquencies are a leading indicator of foreclosures. The drop could mean fewer people in Arizona are likely to lose their homes next year as long as the rate of people behind on their loan payments continues to dip.
"It's one less black cloud over Phoenix's housing market," said Jay Butler, director of realty studies at Arizona State University's Morrison School. "But it will take a couple of quarters of lower delinquency rates and inventories of homes for sale to see if the market is turning."
The falling rates could be attributed to mortgage bankers working with borrowers instead of taking back homes they can't sell for a profit. Another reason could be that more borrowers are lowering their payments by refinancing out of adjustable-rate or subprime mortgages.
Although Arizona's delinquency rate is down, its spike in foreclosures during the past year has put it among the top five states for increases in the number of people actually losing their homes.
The same states that led the nation for price run-ups, subprime loans and speculator buying sprees a few year ago - California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona - now lead the country in new foreclosures.
Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers, said foreclosures nationally would have dropped if these states hadn't posted such big increases.
Arizona's foreclosure rate climbed from 0.76 percent of all loans at the end of 2006 to 0.95 percent of all loans at the end of March. The state's overall rate is still low compared with the rest of the country, but the recent increase signals several more thousand people are about to lose their homes.
Speculators, who bought multiple properties, often using more risky adjustable-rate and subprime loans, are driving the recent increase in metro Phoenix home foreclosures.
At least 25 percent of all Valley homes to fall into foreclosure this year are owned by investors, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of property records from the real estate data firm Information Market.
Lenders can move to foreclosure on a property after a borrower has missed one payment. Many lenders wait three months to see whether struggling homeowners can catch up.
Market watchers say that, besides speculators, many of the Arizona homeowners facing foreclosure either paid more than they could afford or took out adjustable-rate mortgages, betting their incomes or home values would rise.
"Even though the job market in metro Phoenix is good and real incomes are going up for many, some people made bad moves in the housing market and are paying the price now," said Elliott Pollack, an Arizona economist and real estate investor.
He said that as those troubled speculators and homeowners either sell, refinance or lose their properties, delinquencies will fall and foreclosures will follow. Housing slowdown still causing major problems Experts: Sluggish rebound to boost prices, hurt jobs
Sara Murray The Arizona Republic Jun. 7, 2007 12:00 AM
Arizona's lagging housing market likely won't recover until next year and will continue to hinder job growth until it rebounds, state economists said this week. Although houses continue to sell, inflated prices and stockpiled inventory will cramp the industry a while longer.
"Most buyers, I think, now realize that housing prices are not declining, they've simply leveled off," said Marshall Vest, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona's Eller College of Management. "Houses are still selling, they've just come off of those peaks that were driven by the mania that ripped the market there for a while," added Vest, who gave his midyear economic report on Wednesday to business leaders in Tucson.
Vest's comments were underscored by Dennis Hoffman, a Valley economist who said the amount of money changing hands in real estate sales has dropped about 18 percent, to $6.9 billion, from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007. Hoffman is a professor of economics at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.
Nationwide, about 50 percent of economists agreed it will be the end of 2007 or beyond before the market recovers, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics Outlook.
Still, it is possible Arizona could take longer because its prices were so overinflated, Vest said.
Sales of existing homes have stabilized, and 10 months' worth of housing inventory is stocked up, Vest said. Normally, inventory is about four to five months' worth.
Sellers are cutting prices to move homes, but that process needs to continue a while longer before the market can rebuild, Vest said.
"We'll clearly see a recovery, but it's not going to go as quickly or surely as high as it did," he added.
The slowdown in the housing industry, Vest and Hoffman agreed, will continue to create a drag on Arizona's employment and retail numbers.
While non-farm employment grew by about 108,000 jobs in metro Phoenix in 2006, Vest projects it will grow only by 66,000 in 2007. His prediction for 2008 also is grim: just 36,500 jobs being added.
In recent years, the construction industry created about 25 percent of new jobs in the Valley, Vest said. Removing that major source of growth has had a ripple effect on everyone from real estate agents to mortgage bankers to inspection crews, he said.
Hoffman said the loss didn't have as much of a negative impact as expected.
He said that people still view Arizona as an attractive place to live and to open businesses, which will help the economy in the long run.
"The challenge," Hoffman said, is to figure out how this downturn in residential real estate "will affect the rest of the Arizona economy and how long-lived those effects will be."
Vest said retail sales also slumped, showing essentially no growth since last year.
"The slowdown in sales has to do certainly with high debt levels," Vest said. "We've been using our houses as an ATM machine, extracting large amounts of cash to support our spending.
"That door is closing."
Wages, which are increasing about 4 percent, and small gains in job growth still can drive consumer spending, Vest said. The difference is that spending will have to track current income more closely instead of relying on external sources of wealth, he said.
On a national scale, about 40 percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics Outlook say they believe a 25 percent to 33 percent chance exists that the United States will go into a recession within the next year.
Although a recession would further strain Arizona's economy, the losses probably wouldn't be severe, Vest said.
"If a recession does develop, most people think it will be short and mild," he said, "and it will be followed by a strong rebound." Realistic prices help ailing home market, from the ArizonaRepublic, reports that the wide gap between what a home is listed for and what it sells for is shrinking, which means Valley home sales could start to pick up if more buyers and sellers agree on prices. "Both buyers and sellers are readjusting their expectations," said University of Arizona economist Marshall vest. "Buyers are coming back into the market with reasonable offers. More homeowners are pricing their homes to sell." Vest analyzed data from the Arizona Regional MLS and found that the spread between what Valley home prices sold for in March and what they were listed for is the narrowest it has been since mid 2004. Valley home listings hit a high of 50,000 recently, and that needs to come down for a healthy market. "People are realizing this isn't a fad," said Margie O'Campo de Castillo of Arizona Dream Realty. "Listing prices have to come down for homes to sell, and buyers have to be realistic. It's good to see it finally happening."
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0513homeprices0514.html
Equitable Real Estate Company joins Leading Agents & Developers Directory
Scottsdale, Az., May 3, 2007… Scottsdale based luxury real estate firm The Equitable Real Estate Company has become a member of the prestigious Leading International Agents & Developers. Membership is by invitation only and numbers of entries from each country are strictly limited to maintain consistently high standards. The company will now be listed in each issue of International Homes, which is British Airways’ official property magazine, and also on the International Homes website www.international-homes.com.
Stuart Shield, publisher of International Homes magazine, says, “Amongst the many real estate agents, developers and property practitioners in each country a few stand out from the crowd as having exemplary skills in their marketing and public relations. This, in turn, reflects favorably upon the homes and property they sell. Those listed in the Leading International Estate Agents & Developers Directory represent the most outstanding companies we know of and I am pleased to welcome Equitable Real Estate Company as one of those select few.”
“With the addition of International Agents & Developers to our already extensive list of international affiliations, there’s not one company in Arizona who has the global reach we have,” says John N. Vatistas, Chairman of Equitable. “Real Estate is a contact sport. With the majority of our property listings in the Valley’s luxury resort corridor, we have daily opportunities to contact and connect with folks interested in our homes and enviable lifestyle known round the world.”
PRESS RELEASE Equitable Joins Elite International Network
Scottsdale, AZ, May 1, 2007 … The Equitable Real Estate Company has been accepted as an exclusive member of the International Real Estate Federation, commonly known by its French acronym, FIABCI. Founded in Paris in 1949, FIABCI links professionals in the real estate industry in a multi-lingual, multi-cultural, multi-disciplinary network conducting business in countries around the world. The only international real estate organization with representation in the United Nations, FIABCI is considered by real estate professionals and those in affiliated industries to be the leading international real estate association worldwide.
“FIABCI opens doors around the world to our sellers,” says Vatistas, Founder and Chairman of Equitable, a company specializing in the luxury home market in the Phoenix, Scottsdale, Carefree, Cave Creek and Paradise Valley. “It’s a powerful organization that gives us a clear and distinct advantage over our competition.”
Equitable joins a network of 5,000 FIABCI members in 57 countries worldwide specializing in brokerage, appraisal, counseling, development, financing and management. FIABCI holds “Special Consultative Status” at the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations - a privilege reserved for international organizations that are recognized by the UN Committee on Non-Governmental Organizations as having a special competence in their fields.
For more information on FIABCI, visit www.fiabci.org or contact FIABCI-USA, 2000 N. 15th Street, Suite 101, Arlington, VA, 22201; 703-524-4279; fax 703-991-6256; info@fiabci-usa.com.
April 26. 2007 AP
Reports of the Phoenix real estate market's demise have been greatly exaggerated
Phoenix, now the fifth largest city in the United States, could be the poster child for metropolitan areas where a bursting residential housing bubble has created economic discord. However, after parsing data from both the commercial and residential sectors, the Phoenix real estate market appears much stronger than the national press paints it, report Larry Seay, chief financial officer of Phoenix-based Meritage Corp., and Crocker Liu, McCord Chair in Real Estate at the W.P. Carey School of Business.
Speaking at an April 5 seminar in Phoenix entitled "Frontiers in Real Estate: Hedging Your Bets," both Seay and Liu were optimistic along all points of Phoenix's real estate continuum. The seminar was presented by the W. P. Carey School's Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice.
A builder's view of residential
The national press has jumped hard on the fact that the inventory of Phoenix's existing single-family homes has jumped from about 5,000 homes in early 2005 to over 45,000 today, Seay points out. But he says the statistics look bleaker than they actually are.
Phoenix generally has an inventory of about 25,000 homes, he says, and the dip to 5,000 was an anomaly during the height of the bubble. A lot of this dip can be attributed to speculation; as much as 50 percent of the inventory ended up unoccupied or investor-owned. More importantly, Seay adds, with so many people moving into the Valley of the Sun, this "will burn off very quickly."
"Is an inventory of 45,000 homes too many? Sure, but consider that you have 65,000 homes being built every year in Phoenix and 128,600 people moved into the metro area last year. That extra 25,000 will burn off," Seay says. "Phoenix has gotten a lot of bad press about the overhang, but Phoenix is a strong market."
In regard to commercial (office, industrial, retail and multifamily) markets, Liu expects the Valley of the Sun "to experience greater growth." In addition, he adds, investors will be very active in the market this year and the next.
A new look at the commercial market
To discern the health of Phoenix's commercial market, Liu employed an unusual matrix combining corporate earnings and property returns, which begs the question, how does the change in corporate profits relate to property returns? As Liu explains, since land represents one of the four factors of production (which in turn generates the rents that comprise cash flow to property and the demand for more space which leads to price appreciation) and corporate profits are the residual after all production costs are paid, expect increasing profits to increase property returns.
"If you take a look at all the major corporate players, i.e. General Dynamics, Motorola, Intel, etc., in the Phoenix metro area as defined by the Greater Phoenix Economic Council, take the number of local employees for each of these different companies, and then take a look at forecasted earnings for the next 12 months, what this would give you is some sort of predictive measure of how real estate is growing," explains Liu.
There is a catch, however. There's another corporate index -- from Bloomberg -- that tracks the local economy. The difference between the two is that Bloomberg solely tracks companies with a headquarters in Phoenix, such as P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc. The Bloomberg index includes a large number of high-tech and start-ups so it would show more volatility. Indeed, using the GPEC index as a base, the average forward looking EPS is $3.34 and has been on a moderately upward trajectory, while the Bloomberg index trajectory looks more like a hockey stick with a large inclining handle and the forward looking EPS closer to $14.
Showing both indexes, Liu overlaid the price per square foot for office and retail space, and the resulting graph showed similar upward trajectories for both price per square foot and earnings per share. "You can see there is a relationship between what happens with our local corporations, the kinds of profit they are generating, and to our local real estate markets," he stresses. "The same is true for industrial and apartment."
After looking at earnings per share data, Liu concludes Phoenix should experience a growth rate of 1.4 percent for 2007 and an even greater expansion in 2008.
Liu also parsed existing data to discern the local investment market. What he saw, for example, was a capitalization rate (estimates value of real estate investment; net operating income divided by sales price) for the Phoenix office market that has been running correspondingly to the national average, from about 9 percent and above in 2001 to under 7 percent at the end of 2006. In the same vein, the trend line for price per square foot for the Phoenix and the national markets both head upwards at about the same pace. However, the national price per square foot average is consistently ahead of Phoenix.
A similar pattern takes place in regard to the apartment market. Cap rates have declined from about 8 percent in 2001 to below 6.5 percent in 2006. The only difference is that Phoenix cap rates have declined more precipitously and the cap rate is actually below 6 percent. On a price per unit basis, the Phoenix and national average moved upwards over the same period of time. Again there was slight difference, with the Phoenix market trending north moderately, while the national price per unit average trend line showed volatility and was steeper. The result is that the national price per unit for apartments has remained higher than Phoenix.
Price pop?
That is actually good news for Phoenix, notes Liu. "My suspicion is, investors will probably be coming into the Phoenix marketplace if conditions persist for office properties. Prices will pop!" But in the industrial and retail markets, Liu concludes, investors will have to look hard to find bargains.
Liu looked at annual acquisitions in the Phoenix area by market sector. First off, he says, about a third of the investors in the Phoenix market are institutional players, another 15-25 percent are private out-of-state buyers, which means some 50 percent of the acquirers are regional or national players, Liu says.
In the industrial sector, institutional investors are the biggest players, while in the office sector the big investors include opportunity and hedge funds, although institutional players are also major participants. As for retail, the big investors are real estate investment trusts (REITs) and private out-of-state players. Finally, for multifamily, in the past five years, the action has been with condo-converters, with some institutional and private out-of-state investors.
As noted, in the single-family residential market, things look a lot uglier than in the commercial sector, but again, as Seay observes, one really has to look deeper to see that this market is healthier than it first appears.
From the beginning of 2002 through the first three quarters of 2004, the median list price of a Valley of the Sun home basically plateaued, hanging about the $200,000 range with no significant appreciation. Then the bubble came to town and by May 2005, prices shot up like a rocket to a peak of over $350,000. Since then, the median list price has drifted back down to just above $300,000. This was a significant price decrease, says Seay. Prices dropped, he adds, even in the Multiple Listing Service "and you usually don't see the price of resale houses come down a lot."
Added to this was the overhang of new homes on the market. In fact, Seay says, there was an "inventory correction," with high contract cancellations, sales and backlogs declining, spec inventories on the rise, adjustments to house and land prices and finally to inventory write-offs.
But don't despair, Seay cautions, because the Phoenix market is one of the most attractive in the nation based on:
Population -- The greater Phoenix metro area boasts 3.8 million people, with a growth of 128,600 last year. Arizona was the fastest growing state in 2006. In-Migration -- Over a 10-year period, from 1993 to 2003, in-migration was up 60.9 percent. Employment -- The metro area employs 1.9 million people. In 2006, the market added 90,700 jobs. Unemployment as of the beginning of the second quarter 2007 stood at 4 percent Job Growth -- In 2006, Phoenix ranked second in terms of job growth right behind number one, Nevada, and ahead of number three, Idaho, two states with a much smaller population base. From 2005 to 2015, the Phoenix job market is expected to expand by 24.3 percent. In comparison, Dallas/Fort Worth will expand 19.4 percent, but Las Vegas should grow by 35.5 percent. Household income -- The median household income stands at $50,651, which is above the national average. Says Seay, "Phoenix gets a bad rap for not having good jobs, but the median is higher than the national average." Lifestages -- Again, says Seay, people talk about Phoenix being a retirement areas, but the percentage of the local population that is in the "mature years" is just slightly ahead of the national average. Concludes Seay, for the period 2005 to 2010, expect Phoenix population growth, household growth and household income to run ahead of the national average.
Meritage ranks as the fifth largest homebuilder in the Phoenix area, so in regard to the outlook for homebuilders in the area, Seay sums it all up this way: the market will be difficult in 2007 as the inventory overhang must be reduced; price competition will pressure margins, but eventually cancellation rates will slow; and then favorable economic conditions will bring underlying support to the market.
Adds Seay, "long-term demographic factors are still in place."
Bottom Line:
After looking at earnings per share data, Liu concludes Phoenix should experience a growth rate of 1.4 percent for 2007 and an even greater expansion in 2008. "My suspicion is, investors will probably be coming into the Phoenix marketplace if conditions persist for office properties. Prices will pop!" But in the industrial and retail markets, Liu concludes, investors will have to look hard to find bargains. Seay sums it all up this way: the market will be difficult in 2007 as the inventory overhang must be reduced; price competition will pressure margins, but eventually cancellation rates will slow; and then favorable economic conditions will bring underlying support to the market.
U.S. housing market worsens as Valley improves Staff and Wire Reports Apr. 25, 2007 12:00 AM
NEW YORK - The nation's real estate woes deepened in the first quarter of 2007, pushing consumer confidence to its lowest level since August.
Newly released data show that U.S. home prices fell their steepest in almost 15 years in February. And the industry got another shot of bad news when sales of existing houses plunged in March by the largest amount in nearly two decades.
Analysts worry consumer spending will soon begin to slow as a result. "Consumers are not feeling good about the economy," said Gary Thayer, chief economist at AG Edwards & Sons Inc.
The news was better here in the Valley, where the housing market actually began to show signs of life in March.
The Phoenix-area median house price of $265,470 continues to run above the U.S. figure, and March existing homes sales in the area increased over the January and February totals.
Any improvement in the market is welcome, because there are more than 50,000 houses posted for sale on the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, which covers mainly the Valley.
Glen Creno contributed to this report.
Phoenix again claims top spot for job growth The Business Journal of Phoenix - 11:11 AM MST Thursday, April 5, 2007 by Adam Kress The Business Journal
As per the usual, the Phoenix area is No.1 for new jobs. Arizona State University's Blue Chip Job Growth Update ranks the area first among the nation's largest metro markets for employment growth between February 2007 over February 2006. The area's 4.8 percent increase in total nonagricultural employment represents 89,200 new jobs. In metropolitan markets with less than 1 million workers, the Gulfport-Biloxi, Miss., area ranked No. 1, posting a 14.5 percent gain equating to 13,500 jobs. Among states, Utah holds the top position in nonagricultural job growth for February, with a 4.4 percent increase, representing 52,000 jobs. Michigan remains in last place, with a 1 percent decrease, losing nearly 45,000 jobs. Overall, the U.S. economy grew by close to 2 million jobs in February 2007 over February 2006, an increase of 1.5 percent.
April 2, 2007 - Luxury market
There's a relatively new player in the Valley's luxury home market. It's luring away top agents from other firms and trying to catch buyers' attention with some clever, unexpected "for sale" signs.
John Vatistas opened the Equitable Real Estate Co. in Scottsdale in late 2005 just as the Valley's housing market was starting to unwind from its wild run-up.
My cohort in real estate at The Republic, Glen Creno, covers the luxury market more closely than I do. He said what caught his eye about Equitable is that unlike many firms that let agents pay a fee to set up shop with them, Equitable opens its doors only to agents who have been "invited." Last year, it invited well-known former Coldwell Banker Success luxury agent Sandra Baldwin. Recently, Equitable lured high-end housing gurus Ronnie Gilbert and Mark Moskowitz away from Realty Executives.
Now, the real estate firm is hoping to attract more clients in the Valley's housing market with its unusual signs. Instead of the typical "for sale" signs, Equitable wants to catch people's attention with signs in front of homes for sale that say things like "Shorter commute to the tee," "Butler sold separately," "A castle in the sand," or "It'll brag for you."
3/30/2007 - Equitable Real Estate Company Becomes Newest Member of Prestigious Board of Regents
(Seattle) – March 30, 2007 – In a move designed to strengthen the luxury real estate market in Arizona and the world, the Board of Regents recently admitted Equitable into its exclusive and highly coveted network. Equitable serves the luxury real estate industry in Phoenix, Scottsdale and Paradise Valley .
“We only accept the best brokers in the world into the Board of Regents,” said John Brian Losh, CEO and publisher of LuxuryRealEstate.com, and broker, chairman and CEO of Ewing and Clark, Inc. in Seattle. “This addition to the Board of Regents shows not only Equitable’s dedication to excellent service, but the Board of Regents’ high standards and role as the industry leader.”
The Board of Regents is the exclusive affiliation of luxury brokers and the governing body of the Luxury Real Estate network, known as Who’s Who in Luxury Real Estate. It is comprised of 85 brokerage firms representing more than 425 offices from around the world. Each Regents member represents a distinct territory and has been selected because of his or her commitment to the Luxury Real Estate brand and top-ranking performance offering luxury homes for sale in the local market.
With each new member, the Board of Regents becomes stronger and more influential in the global luxury real estate market. Real estate professionals with Equitable expect to receive impressive benefits in their new role.
“Serving our clients constitutes the core of our business, and we have built our success based on this single, customer-centric focus,” said John N. Vatistas, chairman of Equitable. “I am excited about bringing Equitable’s expertise and successful practices to the Board of Regents. We both have much to offer and much to gain.”
Equitable currently employs 275 associates at five offices in Arizona . It was formed in 2005 and its future looks bright as it becomes more prominent in a broader marketplace.
Equitable is a collection of real estate experts dedicated to the ideals of integrity and professionalism. From the ownership, management, agents and affiliate services, every person involved in The Equitable Real Estate Company utilizes innovative skills, programs and technologies to create the finest real estate services company to be found. For additional information, please visit www.efineliving.com.
The Board of Regents is an exclusive network of the world's most elite luxury real estate brokers, comprised of the most legendary names in the industry. The Board of Regents is the governing body of Who’s Who in Luxury Real Estate, the worldwide network of luxury real estate brokerage firms. Members of the Board of Regents are marketing experts, providing innovation and unparalleled service to their clients. For additional information, please visit www.Regents.com.
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